Massimiliano De Leoni, Fabio De Rosa, Andrea Marrella, Massimo Mecella, Antonella Poggi, Alenka Krek, et al. (2007). Emergency management: From user requirements to a flexible P2P architecture. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 271–279). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The most effective way to design an emergency management system matching user needs is to perform a User-Centered Design; it relies on continuous interactions with end-users in order to understand better and better how organizations are arranged during emergencies, which data are exchanged and which steps are performed by organizations to face disastrous events. In this paper we (i) illustrate the methodology used to collect the user requirements for the emergency management system developed in the European research project WORKPAD, and (ii) describe the WORKPAD high level architecture stemming from such requirements. Specifically, the methodology is applied in the context of Regional Civil Protection of Calabria (Italy) and is used as basis to provide more general user requirements for emergency management systems.
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Matthew Guardascione, & Allen E. Milewski. (2010). Feedback mechanisms in automated emergency management training. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: This study explored automated training for emergency managers and the effects of feedback on performance. A prototype emergency management training application was built to allow the usage of either immediate feedback or delayed, “hotwash” feedback. Users were split into two groups and asked to carry out two emergency management scenarios using one of the feedback mechanisms, and the difference in scores between each feedback type were analyzed There was a general increase in performance across sessions. Further, the improvements in scores between each feedback type showed that users performed significantly better when using the hotwash feedback mechanism compared with the immediate feedback mechanism. In contrast to the performance data, preference data showed no overall differences between the two procedures, although each user had a strong preference for one or the other feedback mechanism. The implications for the design of training systems offering both procedures are discussed.
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Matthias Lendholt, & Martin Hammitzsch. (2011). Generic information logistics for early warning systems. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: The delivery of user-tailored warning messages for heterogeneous user groups is a challenge rarely covered by hazard monitoring and early warning systems. While attention is mostly focused on sensor measurements and disaster prediction, warning message dissemination is often based on technical terminology and is not appropriate for the majority of interested user groups. This article describes the concepts of generic information logistics developed for the distant early warning system (DEWS). It is designed to not be limited to specific hazard types, languages or other deployment specifics. Instead, it enables the generation of user-tailored warning messages that account for specific needs and it provides several filter mechanisms to avoid unintended message flooding in emergency situations. Moreover, the importance of spatial references in messages is highlighted and accounted for in both automatic message processing and message reception by humans. Warning messages are based on the common alerting protocol (CAP) to allow interoperability with other early warning systems.
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Mauro Falasca, Christopher W. Zobel, & Deborah Cook. (2008). A decision support framework to assess supply chain resilience. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 596–605). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Our research is aimed at developing a quantitative approach for assessing supply chain resilience to disasters, a topic that has been discussed primarily in a qualitative manner in the literature. For this purpose, we propose a simulation-based framework that incorporates concepts of resilience into the process of supply chain design. In this context, resilience is defined as the ability of a supply chain system to reduce the probabilities of disruptions, to reduce the consequences of those disruptions, and to reduce the time to recover normal performance. The decision framework incorporates three determinants of supply chain resilience (density, complexity, and node criticality) and discusses their relationship to the occurrence of disruptions, to the impacts of those disruptions on the performance of a supply chain system and to the time needed for recovery. Different preliminary strategies for evaluating supply chain resilience to disasters are identified, and directions for future research are discussed.
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Max Wyss. (2005). Earthquake loss estimates applied in real time and to megacity risk assessment. In B. C. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2005 – 2nd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 297–299). Brussels: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: Real time loss estimates within one to two hours after major earthquakes are becoming useful for disaster managers and rescue teams to respond rapidly and at an optimal level. Tests show that the accuracy is low, but major disasters can be reliably distinguished from inconsequential earthquakes. Many technical and organizational aspects of these estimates can and should be improved. An analysis of what magnitude of disaster is likely to occur, if a major earthquake should occur near a megacity in a developing country shows that much work needs to be done to mitigate the risk, and that the global community is ill prepared to deal with such large disasters.
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Michael Ammann, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Kaj Vesterbacka, Tuula Summanen, Markku Seppänen, et al. (2010). KETALE Web application to improve collaborative emergency management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: KETALE is a database and web application intended to improve the collaborative decision support of the Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK) and of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). It integrates distributed modeling (weather forecasts and dispersion predictions by FMI, source term and dose assessments by STUK) and facilitates collaboration and sharing of information. It does so by providing functionalities for data acquisition, data management, data visualization, and data analysis. The report outlines the software development from requirement analysis to system design and implementation. Operational aspects and user experiences are presented in a separate report.
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Michael Hiete, & Mirjam Merz. (2009). An indicator framework to assess the vulnerability of industrial sectors against indirect disaster losses. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Natural and man-made hazards may affect industrial production sites by both direct losses (due to physical damage to assets and buildings) and indirect losses (production losses). Indirect losses, e.g. from production downtimes, can exceed direct losses multiple times. Thus, the vulnerability of industrial sectors to indirect losses is an important component of risk and its determination is an important part within risk analysis. In this paper a conceptual indicator framework is presented which allows to assess the indirect vulnerability of industrial sectors to different types of disasters in a quantitative manner. The results are useful for information sharing and decision making in crisis management and emergency planning (mitigation measures, business continuity planning), since the developed indicator system helps to take the complex phenomenon of industrial vulnerability and the underlying interdependencies into account. Besides the identification and conceptual motivation of the indicators, methodical aspects such as standardization, weighting and aggregation are addressed.
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Michael Howden. (2009). How humanitarian logistics information systems can improve humanitarian supply chains: A view from the field. In S. J. J. Landgren (Ed.), ISCRAM 2009 – 6th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Boundary Spanning Initiatives and New Perspectives. Gothenburg: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Humanitarian logistics represents a broad range of activities taking place within humanitarian organizations, the bulk of these activities are also components of a broader humanitarian supply chain – The network involved with providing physical aid to beneficiaries. Humanitarian logistics information systems improve information flows, which integrates logistics units more efficiently with non-logistics units within the humanitarian supply chains and provides better feedback to donors, ensuring more effective operations. Humanitarian logistics activities occur across the disaster management cycle. Humanitarian logistics information systems not only improve logistics activities in each phase, but can improve the continuity of humanitarian operations by sharing information throughout the transition of different disaster management cycle phases. Through collaboration between organizations, humanitarian logistics information systems also have the potential to reduce corruption and the market distortion which can occur during humanitarian operations.
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Michael J. Chumer, & Murray Turoff. (2006). Command and control (C2): Adapting the distributed military model for emergency response and emergency management. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 465–476). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: The military use of Command and Control (C2) has been refined over centuries of use and developed through years of combat situations. This C2 model is framed as process, function, and organization, suggesting that emergency response organizations and emergency management structure their non military C2 and subsequent response scenarios within the C2 framework established in this paper.
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Michael Klafft, & Ulrich Meissen. (2011). Assessing the economic value of early warning systems. In E. Portela L. S. M.A. Santos (Ed.), 8th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: From Early-Warning Systems to Preparedness and Training, ISCRAM 2011. Lisbon: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: As of today, investments into early warning systems are, to a large extent, politically motivated and “disaster-driven”. This means that investments tend to increase significantly if a disaster strikes, but are often quickly reduced in the following disaster-free years. Such investment patterns make the continuous operation, maintenance and development of the early warning infrastructure a challenging task and may lead to sub-optimal investment decisions. The paper presented here proposes an economic assessment model for the tangible economic impact of early warning systems. The model places a focus on the false alert problematic and goes beyond previous approaches by incorporating some socio-cultural factors (qualitatively estimated as of now). By doing so, it supports policymakers (but also private investors) in their investment decisions related to early warning applications.
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Michael R. Bartolacci, Albena Mihovska, & Dilek Ozceylan Aubrecht. (2013). Optimization modeling and decision support for wireless infrastructure deployment in disaster planning and management. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 674–677). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Natural disasters and emergencies create the need for communication between and among the affected populace and emergency responders as well as other parties such as governmental agencies and aid organizations. Such communications include the dissemination of key information such as evacuation orders and locations of emergency shelters. In particular, the coordination of efforts between responding organizations require additional communication solutions that typically rely heavily on wireless communications to complement fixed line infrastructure due to the ease of use and portability. While the deployment of temporary mobile networks and other wireless equipment following disasters has been successfully accomplished by governmental agencies and network providers following previous disasters, there appears to be little optimization effort involved with respect to maximizing key performance measures of the deployment or minimizing overall cost to deploy. This work does not focus on the question of what entity will operate the portable base stations or wireless equipment utilized during a disaster, only the question of optimizing placement for planning and real time management purposes. This work examines current wireless network optimization models and points out that none of them include the necessary variables for a disaster planning or emergency deployment context. Due to the fact that the choice of wireless technology impacts the nature of an overall model, a brief discussion of exemplar wireless technologies is included. The work also proposes criteria that must be taken into account in order to have a useful model for deployment of mobile base stations and related wireless communications equipment.
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Michael R. Bartolacci, Christoph Aubrecht, & Dilek Ozceylan Aubrecht. (2014). A portable base station optimization model for wireless infrastructure deployment in disaster planning and management. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 50–54). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Disaster response requires communications among all affected parties including emergency responders and the affected populace. Wireless telecommunications, if available through a fixed structure cellular mobile network, satellites, portable station mobile networks and ad hoc mobile networks, can provide this means for such communications. While the deployment of temporary mobile networks and other wireless equipment following disasters has been successfully accomplished by governmental agencies and mobile network providers following previous disasters, there appears to be little optimization effort involved with respect to maximizing key performance measures of the deployment or minimizing overall 'cost' (including time aspects) to deploy. This work-in-progress does not focus on the question of what entity will operate the portable base during a disaster, but on optimizing the placement of mobile base stations or similar network nodes for planning and real time management purposes. An optimization model is proposed for the staging and placement of portable base stations to support disaster relief efforts.
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Mifan Careem, David Bitner, & Ravindra De Silva. (2007). GIS integration in the Sahana disaster management system. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 211–218). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Disaster Management often involves using Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to manage large amounts of data efficiently. Data gathered from disasters are often related to geographic locations, such as the affected geographic region, thus requiring special forms of data management software to utilize and manage them efficiently. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are specialized database systems with software that can analyze and display data using digitized maps and tables for decision making. Preparing and correctly formatting data for use in a GIS is nontrivial, and it is even more challenging during disasters because of tight time constraints and inherent unpredictability of many natural disasters. This paper describes the important role of GIS in disaster management, and discusses the most common characteristics of GIS and their potential use in disaster response. We follow up with a detailed description of the GIS prototype in the Sahana Disaster Management System.
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Mikael Asplund, Trishan R. De Lanerolle, Christopher Fei, Prasanna Gautam, Ralph A. Morelli, Simin Nadjm-Tehrani, et al. (2010). Wireless ad hoc dissemination for search and rescue. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In search and rescue scenarios local information on victims and other finds needs to be disseminated rapidly to other rescue workers and team leaders. However, post disaster scenarios may imply the collapse of information infrastructure including cellular communication and Internet connectivity. Even if we consider wireless ad hoc communication as a means of information dissemination we should count on frequent loss of connectivity in the network due to unpredictable mobility and sparse network topologies. In this paper we present the realization of an existing manycast protocol (random walk gossip) on commodity handheld devices running the Android platform. This communication mode is used to demonstrate the potential for distributed information dissemination on victims and finds. The application layer is an adaptation of an existing surveying information tool (POSIT) which is now fully decentralized and relies on text communication to achieve energy efficiency.
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Min Song, & Peishih Chang. (2008). Automatic extraction of abbreviation for emergency management websites. In B. V. de W. F. Fiedrich (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2008 – 5th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 93–100). Washington, DC: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: In this paper we present a novel approach to reduce information proliferation and aid better information structure by automatically generating extraction of abbreviation for emergency management websites. 5.7 Giga Byte web data from 624 emergency management related web sites is collected and a list of acronyms is automatically generated by proposed system (AbbrevExtractor). Being the first attempt of applying abbreviation extraction to the field, this work is expected to provide comprehensive and timely information for emergency management communities in emergency preparedness, training and education. Future work is likely to involve more data collection and intelligent text analysis for dynamically maintaining and updating the list of acronyms and abbreviations.
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Mitchell L. Moss, & Anthony M. Townsend. (2006). Disaster forensics: Leveraging crisis information systems for social science. In M. T. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Proceedings of ISCRAM 2006 – 3rd International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 305–312). Newark, NJ: Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium.
Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on information systems in crisis management by providing an overview of emerging technologies for sensing and recording sociological data about disasters. These technologies are transforming our capacity to gather data about what happens during disasters, and our ability to reconstruct the social dynamics of affected communities. Our approach takes a broad review of disaster research literature, current research efforts and new reports from recent disasters, especially Hurricane Katrina and the Indian Ocean Tsunami. We forecast that sensor networks will revolutionize conceptual and empiricial approaches to research in the social sciences, by providing unprecedented volumes of high-quality data on movements, communication and response activities by both formal and informal actors. We conclude with a set of recommendations to designers of crisis management information systems to design systems that can support social science research, and argue for the inclusion of post-disaster social research as a design consideration in such systems.
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Mohammadreza Khalilbeigi, Immanuel Schweizer, Dirk Bradler, Florian Probst, & Jürgen Steimle. (2010). Towards computer support of paper workflows in emergency management. In C. Zobel B. T. S. French (Ed.), ISCRAM 2010 – 7th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management: Defining Crisis Management 3.0, Proceedings. Seattle, WA: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: A crucial aspect for large-scale disaster management is an efficient technology support for communication and decision-making processes in command and control centers. Yet, experiences with the introduction of novel technologies in this setting show that field professionals tend to remain attached to traditional workflows and artifacts, such as pen and paper. We contribute the results of a comprehensive field study which analyzes how the information flow is currently performed within different units and persons in the command and control center. These findings provide insights into key aspects of current workflows which should be preserved by novel technological solutions. As our second contribution, by using a participatory design approach and based on our findings, we present a novel approach for computer support in command and control centers. This relies on digital pens and paper and smoothly integrates traditional paper-based workflows with computing, thereby combining the advantages of paper and those of computers.
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Monika Büscher, Catherine Easton, Maike Kuhnert, Christian Wietfeld, Matts Ahlsén, Jens Pottebaum, et al. (2014). Cloud ethics for disaster response. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 284–288). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: In emergencies, exceptions to data protection raise concerns that data may become available to unexpected actors during and after a crisis, resulting in privacy intrusion and social sorting. Apart from ethical issues, there are legal issues, for example around data minimization and issues around social and cultural practices of sharing information. This paper explores key ethical, legal and social issues (ELSI) in utilizing cloud computing for disaster response and management and some examples of innovative design.
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Monika Büscher, Lisa Wood, & Sung-Yueh Perng. (2013). Privacy, security, liberty: Informing the design of EMIS. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 401–410). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: This paper explores issues of security, privacy and liberty arising in relation to ICT supported emergency management. The aim is to inform the design of emergency management information systems (EMIS) and architectures that support emergent interoperability and assembly of emergency management systems of systems. We show how transformations of social and material practices of privacy boundary management create challenges, opportunities and dangers in this context. While opportunities include development of more efficient and agile emergency management models, building on smart city concepts, dangers include surveillance, social sorting and an erosion of civil liberties. Against this backdrop, we briefly explore human practice focused 'privacy by design' as a candidate design avenue.
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Muhammad Imran, Shady Elbassuoni, Carlos Castillo, Fernando Díaz, & Patrick Meier. (2013). Extracting information nuggets from disaster- Related messages in social media. In J. Geldermann and T. Müller S. Fortier F. F. T. Comes (Ed.), ISCRAM 2013 Conference Proceedings – 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 791–801). KIT; Baden-Baden: Karlsruher Institut fur Technologie.
Abstract: Microblogging sites such as Twitter can play a vital role in spreading information during “natural” or man-made disasters. But the volume and velocity of tweets posted during crises today tend to be extremely high, making it hard for disaster-affected communities and professional emergency responders to process the information in a timely manner. Furthermore, posts tend to vary highly in terms of their subjects and usefulness; from messages that are entirely off-topic or personal in nature, to messages containing critical information that augments situational awareness. Finding actionable information can accelerate disaster response and alleviate both property and human losses. In this paper, we describe automatic methods for extracting information from microblog posts. Specifically, we focus on extracting valuable “information nuggets”, brief, self-contained information items relevant to disaster response. Our methods leverage machine learning methods for classifying posts and information extraction. Our results, validated over one large disaster-related dataset, reveal that a careful design can yield an effective system, paving the way for more sophisticated data analysis and visualization systems.
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Muhammad Tauhidur Rahman, & Tarek Rashed. (2007). Towards a geospatial approach to post-disaster environmental impact assessment. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 219–226). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Natural disasters often leave profound impacts on the environment. Existing disaster impact assessment methods fall short in facilitating the relief work and in conducting cross-sectional comparison of various facets of such impacts. The development of a standardized index for measuring/monitoring the environmental impacts of disasters is necessary to address this gap. This paper proposes a conceptual framework to study the environmental impacts via remote sensing/GIS based geospatial analytical approach by developing a post-disaster environmental severity index. It considers physical, social and built-in components of the environment and identifies several key indicators of disaster impacts. Through statistical decomposition of a large number of environmental impact indicators, the study proposes a composite post-disaster environmental severity index (PDESI). Mapping of the proposed index would help identification of areas and component of the environment that are severely affected by a disaster, and formulation of disaster mitigation and damage recovery plans accordingly.
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Murali Raman, Magiswary Dorasamy, Saravanan Muthaiyah, & Maniam Kaliannan. (2014). Web-based community disaster management and awareness system (CEMAS) in Malaysia. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 384–393). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: Emergency situations are unavoidable. This paper presents the functions inherent in a prototype system that was developed in Malaysia for emergency management. The prototype is potentially useful in Selangor, a state in Malaysia that is prone to natural disasters such as flash floods and landslides. The paper is presented as a report of our on-going project in Malaysia and the intended future work regarding web-based emergency management systems in Malaysia. This prototype development is funded by the Ministry of Education in Malaysia and supported by the National Security Council of Malaysia (Majilis Keselamatan Negara, MKN).
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Murray E. Jennex. (2007). Reflections on strong angel III: Some lessons learned. In K. Nieuwenhuis P. B. B. Van de Walle (Ed.), Intelligent Human Computer Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2007 Academic Proceedings Papers (pp. 537–544). Delft: Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM.
Abstract: Strong Angel III was a civilian military disaster response demonstration held in San Diego in /August, 2006. This demonstration resulted in the generation of a great deal of knowledge that can potentially benefit disaster response efforts world wide. This paper attempts to capture this knowledge and to reflect on the demonstration for its value to the community.
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Murray Turoff. (2014). Emergency management education and ISCRAM. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 533–537). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper presents the author's viewpoints and insights into what should be a major activity for ISCRAM to insure a better future for Emergency Management in general. The overall recommendation is that ISCRAM as a professional society should be very actively involved in setting a standard for an Emergency Management degree program that provides a distinctive major in EMIS (Emergency Management Information Systems). The emphasis and conclusions in this paper are based largely upon the situation in the United States.
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Murray Turoff, Victor A. Bañuls, Linda Plotnick, & Starr Roxanne Hiltz. (2014). Development of a dynamic scenario model for the interaction of critical infrastructures. In and P.C. Shih. L. Plotnick M. S. P. S.R. Hiltz (Ed.), ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings – 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (pp. 414–423). University Park, PA: The Pennsylvania State University.
Abstract: This paper summarizes the development of a Cross Impact and Interpretive Structural Model of the interactions of 16 critical infrastructures during disasters. It is based on the estimates of seven professionals in Emergency Management areas and was conducted as an online survey and Delphi Process. We describe the process used and the current results, indicating some of the disagreements in the estimates. The initial results indicate some very interesting impacts of events on one another, resulting in the clustering of events into mini-scenarios.
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