Abstract: Disaster response management has become an important area of research in recent years, with authorities spending more resources in the area. Infrastructure resource interdependencies are key critical points for a system to operate optimally. After a disaster occurs, infrastructures would have sustained certain degrees of damage, the allocation of limited resources to maximize human survival becomes a top priority. The I2Sim (Infrastructures Interdependencies Simulator) research group at the University of British Columbia (UBC) has developed a software simulation toolbox to help authorities plan for disaster responses. This paper presents an optimization decision algorithm based on Lagrange multipliers, which provides the theoretical basis for I2Sim software decision maker layer. There is a simple scenario of three hospitals constructed with the I2Sim toolbox to illustrate the interdependencies of water and electricity. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: Coordination deficiencies have been identified after the March 2011 earthquakes in Japan in terms of scheduling and allocation of resources, with time pressure, resource shortages, and especially informational uncertainty being main challenges. We suggest a decision support model that accounts for these challenges by drawing on fuzzy set theory and fuzzy optimization. Based on requirements from practice and the findings of our literature review, the decision model considers the following premises: incidents and rescue units are spatially distributed, rescue units possess specific capabilities, processing is non-preemptive, and informational uncertainty through linguistic assessments is predominant when on-site units vaguely report about incidents and their attributes, or system reports are not exact. We also suggest a Monte Carlo-based heuristic solution procedure and conduct a computational evaluation of different scenarios. We benchmark the results of our heuristic with results yielded through applying a greedy approach. The results indicate that using our Monte Carlo simulation to solve the decision support model inspired by fuzzy set theory can substantially reduce the overall harm. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: In this paper we describe a work-in-progress decision support program designed for use in the response to major incidents in the UK. The proposed program is designed for use in a continuous fashion, where the updating of its model, the search for solutions to the model through an optimization algorithm, and the issuing of these solutions are carried out concurrently. The model facilitates the inclusion of dynamic and uncertain features of emergency response. The potential of such an approach to deliver high-quality response plans through enabling more accurate modeling is evaluated through focusing on the case of casualty health information. Computational experiments show there is significant value in monitoring the dynamic and uncertain health progression of casualties and updating the model accordingly. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: Earthquakes not only cause damages by shaking, but secondary disasters like fire following earthquake (FFE), tsunami, liquefaction, land slide etc. also cause large-scale losses. In some cases, FFEs result in losses more than shaking do as seen in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1923 Kanto earthquake. FFEs are generally caused by strong ground shakings. Strong shakings damage the structures and infrastructures. As a consequence of earthquake, many ignitions can occur due to damaged gas systems and electrical systems, overturning of electrical appliances and heating equipments and falling of flammable materials from shelves in structures. In addition to interior structure ignitions, damaged infrastructure elements such as gas pipelines and electric transmission lines can also cause ignitions. Some of these ignitions spread due to amount of fuel load (combustible materials), construction material, direction and speed of wind etc. in the environment and they can turn into large urban conflagrations. This paper proposes a physics-based post-earthquake fire ignition model in order to estimate number and location of ignitions in urban areas. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: Society is faced with a growing amount of property damage and casualties from man-made and natural disasters. Developing societal resilience to those disasters is critical but challenging. In particular, societal resilience is jointly determined by federal and local governments, private and non-profit sectors, and private citizens. We present a sequence of games among players such as federal, local, and foreign governments, private citizens, and adaptive adversaries. In particular, the governments and private citizens seek to protect lives, property, and critical infrastructure from both adaptive terrorists and non-adaptive natural disasters. The federal government can provide grants to local governments and foreign aid to foreign governments to protect against both natural and man-made disasters. All levels of government can provide pre-disaster preparation and post-disaster relief to private citizens. Private citizens can also make their own investments. The tradeoffs between protecting against man-made and natural disasters – specifically between preparedness and relief, efficiency and equity – and between private and public investment, will be discussed. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: The present paper introduces a high level modeling language, capable of expressing the concepts and processes of the Strategic Risk Assessment and Contingency Planning in Interconnected Transportation Networks (STAR-TRANS) framework. STAR-TRANS is a comprehensive transportation security risk assessment framework for assessing related risks that provides cohered contingency management procedures for interconnected, interdependent and heterogeneous transport networks. STAR-TRANS modeling Language (STML) is a domain specific language combining language simplicity with a very clear syntax, providing all the necessary elements (assets, threats, incidents, consequences etc.) to model the STAR-TRANS risk assessment framework. © 2012 ISCRAM.

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to briefly describe the characteristics of the Romanian emergency system, risk perception and the use of strategic planning and foresight methodologies in emergency preparedness. The core of the paper investigates the perception of the local leaders of the ES regarding the most probable risks, the uses and utility of long term strategic planning and foresight methodologies, using the Delphi technique. Earthquakes and floods are considered to e the greatest risks, but the leaders do not feel well prepared for them. Lessons drawn from the Romanian transition provide an interesting case study for other new emerging countries. © 2012 ISCRAM.