Haitao Sun, Zhiru Wang, Guofeng Su, & Jianguo Chen. (2016). Topological Structure Vulnerability Assessment of Shanghai Urban Metro Networks. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Topological structure vulnerability assessment approach for Urban Metro Networks (UMNS) was proposed in order to decrease the impact caused by incidents. Failure scale of stations and sections random failure and target attacks was evaluated. The results show that UMNS is more vulnerable to target attacks on stations than random failure on stations. But UMNS is less vulnerable to target attacks on sections than random failure on sections. Additionally, UMNS is more vulnerable to station failure than sections. It could be concluded as more resources should be put on big transfer stations in UMNS operation management to avoid large scale impacts. The proposed methodology is not intended to predict the occurrence of events but rather to be used a management tool. Results from the evaluation are valuable elements in planning UMNS. They can be used for network planning, further detailed hazard studies, deciding on the arrangement of emergency resources.
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Oscar Durán, Edward Ruiz, & Catalina Esquivel. (2016). Towards a Monitoring and Follow Up System for the Costa Rican Risk Management System. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: The institutions that make up the Costa Rican Risk Management System are in charge of implementing the National Policy on Risk Management. It is necessary to highlight the scope of each institution regarding such implementation. This paper presents the proposal for a monitoring and follow up model. The monitoring to be implemented must process and provide precise information for decision making. This work presents the conceptual and methodological aspects for the aforementioned monitoring system.
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Laura Laguna Salvadó, Matthieu Lauras, & Tina Comes. (2016). Towards a Monitoring System for American IFRC Logistics Network. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: The International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC), is one of the many humanitarian organizations that are further developing their logistics network more decentralized structures with sub-regional networks. One of the main challenges identified is the need of monitoring tools to have a real-time overview of the whole logistics network state, and optimization of the associated operations through real-time decision support systems. Logistics departments of humanitarian organizations have not adopted the technological developments that are standard in the commercial sector due to critical differences, and the IFRC is not an exception. This paper presents a case study conducted with the American and Caribbean IFRC. We present user requirements and specifications for the design of a real-time monitoring system dedicated the sub-regional network. It particularly addresses the challenges to simplify remote data collection, visualization and analysis.
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Jorge Vargas, Jonatan Rojas, Alejandra Inga, Wilder Mantilla, Hulber Añasco, Melanie Fatsia Basurto, et al. (2016). Towards Reliable Recurrent Disaster Forecasting Methods: Peruvian Earthquake Case. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: We are interested in recurrent disaster forecasts; these are events such as annual cyclones in the Caribbean, earthquakes along the Ring of Fire and so on. These crises, even small- or medium-sized, are, in fact, critical for the emergency response of humanitarian organizations inasmuch as the sum of casualties and losses attained are as deadly as those that are considered exceptional. The aim of our research is to show that it is possible to use traditional forecasting methods such as: causal methods (which include the use of linear regression functions, non-linear, multivariate, etc.), time series (which include simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, etc.) and so on, if the historical data keeps, among other criteria, its patterns, frequency, and magnitude, in a sustainable manner. Finally, an example to forecast recurrent earthquakes in Peru is presented.
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Shane Errol Halse, Andrea Tapia, Anna Squicciarini, & Cornelia Caragea. (2016). Tweet Factors Influencing Trust and Usefulness During Both Man-Made and Natural Disasters. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: To this date, research on crisis informatics has focused on the detection of trust in Twitter data through the use of message structure, sentiment, propagation and author. Little research has examined the usefulness of these messages in the crisis response domain. Toward detecting useful messages in case of crisis, in this paper, we characterize tweets, which are perceived useful or trustworthy, and determine their main features. Our analysis is carried out on two datasets (one natural and one man made) gathered from Twitter concerning hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the Boston Bombing 2013. The results indicate that there is a high correlation and similar factors (support for the victims, informational data, use of humor and type of emotion used) influencing trustworthiness and usefulness for both disaster types. This could have impacts on how messages from social media data are analyzed for use in crisis response.
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Boni Su, Hong Huang, Zhiqiang Wang, Nan Zhang, Wei Zhu, & Xinfeng Wei. (2016). Urban pluvial flood risk assessment based on scenario simulation. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In this study, urban pluvial flood risk is studied in an actual study area using scenario simulation method based on hydrodynamics. Real weather data and GIS (Geographic Information System) data are adopted to make the results reliable. A region in Haidian District of Beijing is selected as the study area. All the rainfall scenarios (about 200 scenarios) during an 8-year period (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2015) are obtained from hourly precipitation data. These rainfall scenarios are used as input for numerical simulations. Spatial-temporal distributions of water depth are obtained through numerical simulation base on SWEs (Shallow-Water Equations). GPU computing technique is applied to increase simulation speed greatly. Influence of rainfall parameters on flood water depth is analyzed. The results show that water depth becomes higher if rainfall duration and average rainfall intensity increase. Moreover, situation of water depth is not only related to overall parameters like rainfall duration or rainfall intensity, but also related to other details of rainfall. Water depth exceedance probability curves of every location and every building are obtained, and different characteristics of the curves are discussed. Finally, the effect of water depth exceedance probability curves of buildings on designing building foundation height is shown. This study is helpful to the risk assessments of urban pluvial flood.
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Tobias Andersson Granberg, Niklas Danielsson, Anna Fredriksson, Johan Nordstrom, Sofie Pilemalm, Richard Tjernstrom, et al. (2016). Using Semi-professionals in Emergency Response. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: The term semi-professional can be used to denote occupational groups that do not have emergency response as their primary profession but who get additional responsibilities within rescue and response, e.g. by performing a first response or assisting the professional emergency services. In this study, four different groups of possible semi-professional resources are analyzed and compared. Similarities and differences between the four groups are discussed. Factors, important for the successful implementation of a cross-sector collaboration of this kind, are highlighted. The preliminary results show that all four groups have the potential to act as semi-professional resources within emergency response. Interestingly, the basic requirements are the same for all groups, despite different prerequisites.
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Victor A. Bañuls, Cristina López-Vargas, Fernando Tejedor, Murray Turoff, & Miguel Ramirez de la Huerga. (2016). Validating Cross-Impact Analysis in Project Risk Management. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.
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Takuya Oki, & Toshihiro Osaragi. (2016). Wide-area Evacuation Difficulty in Densely-built Wooden Residential Areas. In A. Tapia, P. Antunes, V.A. Bañuls, K. Moore, & J. Porto (Eds.), ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings ? 13th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Abstract: In aiming to decrease the number of casualties and people with difficulty in wide-area evacuations due to a large earthquake, it is highly important to visualize and quantify the potential danger in residential areas. In this paper, we construct a multi-agent simulation model, which describes property damage (such as building-collapse, the spread of fire and blocking of streets) and people?s evacuation behavior after an earthquake occurring. Using this simulation model, we quantify the wide-area evacuation difficulty in densely-built wooden residential areas, and evaluate the past project to improve buildings and streets based on this indicator. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effects of adding new evacuation routes between two intersections of streets with narrow width and long distance. Through these case studies, the effectiveness of our simulation model on urban disaster mitigation planning is shown.
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