Abstract: Identifying the terror attack, illegal public gathering or other mass events risks by utilizing cameras is an important concern both in crowd security area and in pattern recognition research area. This paper provides a physical entropy model to measure the crowd security level.The entropy model was created by identifying individuals?moving velocity and the related probability. The individuals are represented by Harris Corners in videos, thus to avoid the time-consuming human recognition task. Simulation experiment and video detection experiments were conducted, verified that in the disordered state, the entropy is higher; while in ordered state, the entropy is much lower; when the crowd security has a sudden change, the entropy will change. It was verified that the entropy is the applicable indicator of crowd security. By recognizing the entropy mutation, it is possible to automatically detect the abnormal crowd behavior and to set the warning alarm.

Abstract: Complex and multifaceted problems such as emergencies typically require coordinated effort by a network of different organisations. These networks typically rely less on formal hierarchical structures and instead have a stronger focus on allowing the dynamics to emerge in the process of collaboration. A balance has to be achieved between the internal dynamics of the various member organisations that make up the network on the one hand, and the emerging dynamics of the network collaboration itself on the other ? and the precise nature of this balance will depend on the context. To help those making decision on how to achieve that balance, we have developed a framework describing four archetypal networked organisations: fragmented, deconflicted, coordinated, and collaborative and agile. The four archetypes have two purposes. Firstly, they can be used to guide networked organisations as they adapt to changing administrative and societal contexts. Secondly, they can be used to express the dynamics of the development of a response organisation in a particular emergency situation.

Abstract: Source term estimation (STE) of hazardous material (HAZMAT) releases is critical for emergency response. Such problem is usually solved with the aid of atmospheric dispersion modelling and inversion algorithms accompanied with a variety of uncertainty, including uncertainty in atmospheric dispersion models, uncertainty in meteorological data, uncertainty in measurement process and uncertainty in inversion algorithms. Bayesian inference methods provide a unified framework for solving STE problem and quantifying the uncertainty at the same time. In this paper, three stochastic methods for STE, namely Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), are compared in accuracy, time consumption as well as the quantification of uncertainty, based on which a kind of flip ambiguity phenomenon caused by various uncertainty in STE problems is pointed out. The advantage of non-Gaussian estimation methods like SMC is emphasized.

Abstract: Understanding critical infrastructures and in particular protecting them in case of natural or man-made threats or disasters is the objective of our research. As use case, the security of the power supply in the year 2030 for the city of Karlsruhe was selected. This scenario contains interdependencies between the electrical power grid and IT components as well as critical infrastructures such as water supply and health care. To simulate the critical infrastructure, their dependencies and potential measures to mitigate effects, agent based simulation models have been developed and applied. The ultimate objective of the research activity is to develop a holistic analysis framework to quantify and evaluate requirements and design decisions of the many players in such complex infrastructures.

Abstract: The preparation of high quality emergency plans to guide operational decisions is an approach to mitigate the emergency management complexity. In such multidisciplinary scenario, teams with different perspectives need to collaborate towards a common goal and interact within a common understanding. In this scenario, the characterization of the variability of the elements involved in these plans is an important issue, which is addressed by the emergency plans generation methodology Document Product Line for Emergency Plans (DPL(EP)). To increase common understanding of plans, we propose an adaptation of this methodology by applying a well-founded emergency ontology, termed OntoEmergePlan, which supports the domain engineering phase. It is grounded in a foundational ontology, which ensures a higher consistency degree to the process of plans generation.

Abstract: This paper discusses the practical aspects and resulting insights of the results of a two-stage mathematical network flow model to help make the decisions required to get humanitarian aid quickly to needy recipients as part of a disaster relief operation. The aim of model is to plan where to best place aid inventory in preparation for possible disasters, and to make fast decisions about how best to channel aid to recipients as fast as possible. Humanitarian supply chains differ from commercial supply chains in their greater urgency of response and in the poor quality of data and increased uncertainty about important inputs such as transportation resources, aid availability, and the suddenness and degree of “demand”. The context is usually more chaotic with poor information feedback and a multiplicity of decision-makers in different aid organizations. The model attempts to handle this complexity by incorporating practical decisions, such as pre-allocation of emergency goods, transportation policy, fleet management and procurement, in an uncertainty environment featured by a scenario-based approach. Preliminary results based on the floods and landslides disaster of the Mountain Region of Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, point to how to cope with these challenges by using the mathematical model.

Abstract: The increasing number of victims from disasters in recent years results in several challenges for authorities aiming to protect and provide support to affected people. Humanitarian logistics represents one of the most important fields during preparedness and response in cases of disaster, seeking to provide relief, information and services to disaster victims. However, on top of the challenges of logistical activities, the successful completion of operations depends to a large extent on coordination. This is particularly important for developing countries, where disasters occur very often and resources are even scarcer.
This paper assumes a multi-agency approach to disaster preparedness that combines geographical information systems (GIS) and multi-objective optimization. The purpose of the tool is to determine the location of emergency facilities, stock prepositioning and distribution allocation for floods. We illustrate the application and the results using a case study centred on Acapulco, México.

Abstract: This paper reviews current work on a model of the cascading effects of Critical Infrastructure (CI) failures during disasters. Based upon the contributions of 26 professionals, we have created a reliable model for the interaction among sixteen CIs. An internal CI model can be used as a core part of a number of larger models, each of which are tailored to a specific disaster in a specific location.

Abstract: Forest fire risk assessment is an important task for forest fire management and planning. This paper presents current work on the definition and implementation of forest fire risk assessment models in the Wildfire AnalystTM software with the purpose of providing support and increased value in risk assessment. Three models are presented based on the concept of forest fire risk: forest fire structural hazard model that provides the assessment of the expected easiness that a fire has to spread in a certain area, a stochastic model that assesses the fire growth potential considering as potential ignition points critical elements of electric supply networks and a stochastic model that assesses the potential impact of forest fires on these infrastructures.

Abstract: In this paper, we use the fast marching method to solve the emergency evacuation in high-rise building fire. This method is a numerical method which is used to solve the Eikonal equation in rectangular grids. As we know, building fires are very common in the world. They have caused a great deal of personnel casualty and property losses. How to reduce the casualty and ensure the life safety of trapped persons and rescuers have become the most important problem of the fire department. We carry out fire experiment and FDS simulation to research the structure fire firstly. Second, we divide the construction into 0.4m*0.4m grid. This size is a person who occupied when he is standing. After that, we use interpolation method to analyze the experiment and FDS simulation data so that we can get the risk value of each grid. At last, we calculate the global potential energy field of the scene based on the fast marching method and obtain a safest path for the trapped persons. The safest path represents the fastest-risk-decline path. In the cause of fire rescue we can provide the safest path to the trapped persons through evacuation signals of the building in order to guide them to evacuate and self-rescue.

Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between collaborative disaster mapping and conceptions of risk. It looks at improvised mapmaking during the 2007 wildfires in Southern California to identify and analyze social and technological issues in creating a shared understanding through collaboration. By comparing and contrasting two different, yet intertwined, mapping practices this paper focuses on how the distribution of social and technological actors change how risk, threat, and uncertainty are approached. One, more centralized mapmaking collaboration produced risks related to managing authority and security. The other, more distributed collaboration, produced risks related to public trust and safety. This paper argues that map-making is characterized as a messy, distributed network of knowledge production in which the meaning of risk emerges through the unplanned collaborations that evolve as those involved work to make sense of the wildfires, not as an a-priori definition.

Abstract: A hyperbolic portrayal of Ebola in the US resulted in a crisis of misinformation, when an actual outbreak never occurred. We study how online mass media uses discourse in the constitution of a culture of fear, and how non-expert actors (e.g. media) employ a specific line of discussion to legitimize actions outside of science. Strange nationalism is afantastical construction of foreign, invasive crises. This discourse was used in online media to create an imagined Ebola outbreak, which legitimized inappropriate disease management policies, since outbreak was positioned as fact. Information featured on mass media provides input to crisis and emergency management information systems, such as the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS). In this respect, online media play a key role in informing the public about crisis through the construction of real or imagined emergencies. How crisis is framed affects both public understanding and response by authorities.