Abstract: In case of a mass-casualty incident, e.g. due to a disaster, a high number of patients need medical care within a short time frame and often, a significant percentage must be transported to a hospital or another suitable care facility. Then, different mass transportation modes (e.g., busses, ships or trains) may be used to quickly transport patients to available medical treatment centres outside of the disaster area. Within the SimPaTrans project, we develop a simulation-based decision support system for locating, sizing and analysing different modes of transport in order to prepare for mass-casualty incidents in Germany. In this paper, we present the outline of the tool as well as a first optimisation use case for transportation patients within the city of Karlsruhe, Germany

Abstract: Cross-domain simulations can be a feasible approach for enhancing disaster resilience as well as promoting resilient societies. This work-in-progress proposes a data-centric process model and software platform architecture called “SimulationOps” aimed at improving cross-domain collaboration between researchers (simulation analysts, simulation modelers) and stakeholders (disaster responders, decision makers) throughout the simulation life cycle for combined simulation artifacts. This way, stakeholders are supported in mitigating disasters, improving overall resilience by gained insights, and improvements in quality and velocity. Applying a four-cycle Design Science Research model to the simulation lifecycle, it combines ideas from modern and agile software engineering practices, simulation-as-a-service approach, and the Data Mesh approach. It combines the technical IT level with the organizational process level to smoothen the workflow for creating, running, and improving cross-domain computer simulation components for both producers as well as consumers of the simulation life cycle.

Abstract: The local government’s continuous support is critical for the well-being of a community during disaster events. E-Government systems that establish and maintain ongoing connections with the community thus play a vital role in supporting crisis response and recovery. Such systems’ ability to adapt to the crisis circumstances and to address emergent needs helps them continue their fundamental functions during disasters. Considering various services might require different amounts and types of resources, prioritization strategies are helpful in determining the processing order of requests. This paper discusses the role of prioritizing services within an e-Government system, to better understand how such a system can be managed to best utilize available resources. The study examines how a well-functioning e-Government system, the Orange County, Florida 311 non-emergency service system, responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and how the changes in service operations requirements can affect service provision, specifically with respect to assigning or re-assigning priority levels.

Abstract: International peace operations in response to complex emergencies require effective interaction between international civil and military participants and local actors. Although these operations frequently occur worldwide, civil-military interaction (CMI) remains problematic. CMI problems are described in the literature at length. However, the knowledge management aspects of these problems have received less attention. The feasibility of technical support solutions for CMI should be investigated using a design science approach. This requires validated models of the structural and behavioral characteristics of the CMI domain. A CMI conceptual framework providing such models has been proposed earlier and should be validated. A case study has been conducted into a Netherlands military CMI organization. This study provides for initial user validation of the models. In follow-on research, the validated conceptual framework is used to structure the investigation of CMI problems, knowledge process deficiencies, and their causal relations. It may subsequently support knowledge engineering-based solution design.

Abstract: The simulation of radioactive pollutants dispersion is critical for emergency response of the nuclear terrorism. The radioactive ?dirty bomb?, also called radiological dispersion device (RDD), produced and used by the terrorist to make fearful and radioactive pollution in general, has a great risk on humans. Numerical investigation of the impact of different configurations on radioactive pollution release and dispersion in urban buildings is made in this paper. The numerical simulations used the OpenFOAM, a free and open source software for computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and the simulations can be implanted to the information system of the nuclear terrorism emergency decision support system(EDSS) as the consequence assessment subsystem conveniently. The study showed that the configurations of building canyon and the position relationship of the source item and the buildings both affect the concentration distributions around the buildings.

Abstract: In this paper, we describe methodologies for using portable, solar powered charging kiosks to provide mobile phone charging to communities following a disaster. We do not strive to provide a comprehensive alternative to grid power, rather we focus on charging mobile phones and other battery-powered devices. The small size of portable solar systems come with a trade-off: demand for power may exceed battery capacity and solar power generation. In such cases, power output must be regulated in order to maintain the functionality of the system, or the system may be modified to produce more power by adding more solar panels, or to store more power by adding additional batteries. We model user demand for power and kiosk power generation, battery status, and power output to inform the development, deployment, operation and reconfiguration of such kiosks following a disaster.

Abstract: Companies work increasingly more on projects as a means of executing organizational decisions. However, too many enterprise projects result in failure. Hence, firms should follow a risk management method that drives their projects toward success. Nevertheless, project managers often deal with risks intuitively. This is partly because they lack the proper means to correctly manage the underlying risks which affect the entire cycle of their projects. Therefore, one purpose is to identify the critical events that managers may encounter before the beginning of the project and during its development. In addition, we propose CIA-ISM to represent existing relationships between the unforeseen events in the project?s lifetime and their key performance indicators. This also predicts the influence of risks on project performance over time by means of scenarios. The tool proposed would thus help practitioners to manage enterprise projects risks in a more effective and proactive way. We have validated the predictive capability of the CIA-ISM model with 22 real projects. The results show a high level of predictive capability in terms of risk analysis and key performance indicators.

Abstract: In aiming to decrease the number of casualties and people with difficulty in wide-area evacuations due to a large earthquake, it is highly important to visualize and quantify the potential danger in residential areas. In this paper, we construct a multi-agent simulation model, which describes property damage (such as building-collapse, the spread of fire and blocking of streets) and people?s evacuation behavior after an earthquake occurring. Using this simulation model, we quantify the wide-area evacuation difficulty in densely-built wooden residential areas, and evaluate the past project to improve buildings and streets based on this indicator. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effects of adding new evacuation routes between two intersections of streets with narrow width and long distance. Through these case studies, the effectiveness of our simulation model on urban disaster mitigation planning is shown.

Abstract: In the years following Chernobyl, many reports and projects reflected on how to improve emergency management processes in dealing with an accidental offsite release of radiation at a nuclear facility. A common observation was the need to address the inevitable uncertainties. Various suggestions were made and some of these were researched in some depth. The Fukushima Daiichi Disaster has led to further reflections. However, many of the uncertainties inherent in responding to a threatened or actual release remain unaddressed in the analyses and model runs that are conducted to support the emergency managers in their decision making. They are often left to factor in allowances for the uncertainty through informal discussion and unsupported judgement, and the full range of sources of uncertainty may not be addressed. In this paper, we summarise the issues and report on a project which has investigated the handling of uncertainty in the UK's national crisis cell. We suggest the R&D programmes needed to provide emergency managers with better guidance on uncertainty and how it may affect the consequences of taking different countermeasures.

Abstract: In response to the threat of hazardous gas releases to public safety and health, we propose an agile framework for detecting and quantifying gas emission sources. Emerging techniques like high-precision gas sensors, source term estimation algorithms and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles are incorporated. The framework takes advantage of both stationary sensor network method and mobile sensing approach for the detection and quantification of hazardous gases from fugitive, accidental or deliberate releases. Preliminary results on street-level detection of urban natural gas leakage is presented. Source term estimation is demonstrated through a synthetic test case, and is verified using Cramér-Rao bound analysis.

Abstract: This paper presents an overview of ongoing research into the implementation of an agent-based model aimed at providing decision support for the layout design of lecture theatres and human behavioural management in emergency evacuation. The model enables the spatial layout of lecture theatres to be configured and incorporates agent behaviours at the basic movement and individual level. In terms of individual behaviours, agents can be competitive, cooperative, climb obstacles (e.g. seating and desks) and fall down. Two cases are investigated to evaluate the effects of different exit locations in lecture theatres and competitive behaviour of agents on evacuation efficiency in multiple scenarios.

Abstract: Human behaviour is influenced by many psychological factors such as emotions, whose role is already widely recognised. Another important factor, and all the more so during disasters where time pressure and stress constrain reasoning, are cognitive biases. In this paper, we present a short overview of the literature on cognitive biases and show how some of these biases are relevant in a particular disaster, the 2009 bushfires in the South-East of Australia. We provide a preliminary formalisation of these cognitive biases in BDI (beliefs, desires, intentions) agents, with the goal of integrating such agents into agent-based models to get more realistic behaviour. We argue that taking such “irrational” behaviours into account in simulation is crucial in order to produce valid results that can be used by emergency managers to better understand the behaviour of the population in future bushfires.

Abstract: Human behaviour during crisis evacuations is soial in nature. In particular, social attachment theory posits that proximity of familiar people, places, objects, etc. promotes calm and a feeling of safety, while their absence triggers panic or flight. In closely bonded groups such as families, members seek each other and evacuate as one. This makes attachment bonds necessary in the development of realistic models of mobility during crises. In this paper, we present a review of evacuation behaviour, theories on social attachment, crises mobility, and agent-based models. We found that social attachment influences mobility in the dierent stages of evacuation (pre, during and post). Based on these findings, we intend to develop a multi-agent model of mobility during seismic crises, using the belief, desire and intention (BDI) agent architecture.